Is the advertising recovery we’re witnessing as unbalanced as anything that occurred in the City of London during the run-up to 2008? That’s what I’m starting to wonder. Take DMGT’s Q2 numbers, which disclose that retailers once again outperformed the broad advertising market, increasing their expenditure Associated Newspapers by 19% YOY. Overall, ad revenues at [...]
Here’s an odd one: Daily Mail & General Trust reports a 10% YOY decline in revenues but operating profits rise by 20%. How come? The answer is simple: at the end of every downturn, there comes a point when cost cutting starts to outpace revenue declines. Traditionally, this is the point at which media companies [...]
What happened to the traditional logic of the business cycle? Local newspapers used to be first into a recession, and first out. This time, they were first in. But it looks like they will be last out — always assuming, of course, that they return to growth at all. This morning’s trading statement from JP [...]
Goldman Sachs is predicting good things for ITV. The broadcaster’s ad revenues should rise by 10% during 2010, say Goldman’s analysts. By the end of 2010, this will push ITV’s net advertising revenues up to £1.42bn. This is within spitting distance of what the company achieved on the eve of recession in 2007 (£1.49bn). On top [...]
As inevitably as night follows day, the debate about paywalls started in earnest during early 2009, a few months after the collapse of Lehmann Brothers, and several months after online display advertising stopped growing. Publishers have spent the past year obsessing about paid content. Yet in the meantime, something wholly inevitable and largely unnoticed has [...]
Last week, Sir Martin Sorrell tried out his impersonation of an Old Testament prophet on financial analysts. During a conference call with analysts, Sorrell revealed a 9 per cent decline in like-for-like revenues at WPP between July and September. He then went on to deliver instructions on how to call the end of recession. These [...]
Perhaps we’ll look back on this week as pivotal. Last Friday, Sir Martin Sorrell attacked those who talk up ad markets on the basis of slowing revenue declines. Following his lead, I suggested yesterday that we’re not out of the woods yet. This morning, ITV announced a forecast 4% YOY growth in ad revenues during December. [...]
Confusion stalks the land. Is flat the new up? Or is down the new flat? Typically, recovery means revenue growth. But after two years of declining ad spend, sentiment encourages inflated claims. Disappointments seem exaggerated in their effect. Some persist in talking up a recovery. We all want the pain to end. At the Guardian [...]
This morning brings a carefully-worded trading update from Daily Mail & General Trust. Quoted companies use trading updates to “guide” the market toward reasonable expectations for full-year results. DMGT’s financial year finishes in early October. The company will report full-year results on 26th November. I said the statement was carefully-worded. Actually, the lack of any sign [...]
We know what inflation does to the advertising business. In an era of rising prices and wages, like the 1970s and 1980s, it makes sense for advertisers to pour money into brand development, partly because this is a good way of justifying price increases. Inflation made a powerful contribution to adland’s golden era. But what [...]